The Cut-Off Man

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It’s pretty easy to overlook the Orioles line-up when the Yankees and Red Sox in their division and their six or seven run outputs are overshadowed by their pitching staff’s incompetence. But Baltimore actually has one of the more talented line-ups in the majors, one that sacrifices average for power at a couple of positions. The Orioles ranked fourth in baseball in homeruns last season behind only the Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers. With no major subtractions in the off-season and only positive things to come from star-in-the-making Matt Weiters, the Orioles should continue to have an above average offense in 2012.

Baltimore made sure to keep star outfielder Adam Jones around though settling for a one-year deal rather than a long-term agreement was a bit unsettling. The Orioles aren’t going to be competing any time soon and for a soon to be in his prime Jones, that opens the door for him to walk in the off-season. Perhaps the best move for the Orioles looking forward is to look to trade Jones at some point this season to stock up on arms for their farm system but I still think it would have been smart to keep him around long-term.

The Orioles’ Jones, Nick Markakis and Nolan Reimold outfield is one of my favorite tandems in the league. This trio boasts a good combination of contact hitting, power, and speed. It’s not a deadly group but it’s an effective one and one that has the potential to get better this season with Jones in a contract year, Markakis likely to rebound from a poor power hitting year and Reimold getting his first full season as a starter.

Baltimore does have two of the biggest strikeout machines in baseball in their line-up but the power that Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis deliver at the corner infield spots nearly makes their tendency to whiff bearable. Throw-in J.J. Hardy, who is almost certainly going to regress after his breakout 30 homer campaign but is still a good player, and you have a pretty powerful infield. If Baltimore can get anything out of Brian Roberts, who has been sidelined by constant concussions over the past year or two, that’s a major plus. The biggest problem with this group is that, outside of Hardy, this is one of the worst fielding infields in the league. For a team with an already poor rotation, that hurts.

Baltimore has a pretty good offense and if the Orioles had, say, San Fransisco’s pitching staff, they’d be one of the best teams in the league. Instead, Baltimore will have several impressive offensive outputs go to waste this season because their pitching staff has trouble holding teams under six runs a night. We may see someone like Jones or J.J. Hardy get dealt this season simply because Baltimore HAS to start building up their farm system at some point and if they don’t deal some of their productive bats now they’re sure to walk away later.

Hit the jump for the rest of Mark’s preview…

The Orioles haven’t been outside of the bottom five in the majors in team ERA since 2005, when they had the 23rd worst pitching staff in baseball. Since 2000, the Orioles have never been outside the bottom 11 in team ERA. Last season Baltimore was dead last in team ERA.

You’d think at some point this team would be able to turn out at least one or two effective starters to anchor their rotation for a few years but that hasn’t and won’t be the case moving forward.

In the off-season, the Orioles traded Jeremy Guthrie, who led the team in ERA (Guthrie may be the first pitcher with a 4.33 ERA to lead his team in that category) and strikeouts to the Rockies for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom. The former had decent 2009 and 2010 campaigns but he posted career highs in HR/9 and BB/9, a career low in K/9 and an awful 4.83 FIP. Hammel even had the luxury of a .280 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) but he still managed to get pounded. The latter is a decent reliever but will likely be overworked because of Baltimore’s poor rotation.

I am excited to see a full season of Zach Britton, who figures to be this staff’s ace. The 24-year old lefty had a very unlucky 2011 campaign, falling victim to one of the worst defensive infields in baseball. His 4.61 ERA doesn’t tell the entire story as Britton posted a 4.00 FIP (fielding independent pitching), a slightly above average mark and a pretty good one for someone in their first major league season that had to pitch in the AL East. Britton posted one of the best groundball rates in baseball last season (52.8%) but his ability to create what should be easy outs was cancelled out by the fact that Mark Reynolds was LITERALLY the worst fielding third baseman in baseball history. Even the sure-handed J.J. Hardy playing short couldn’t make up for the rest of the bunch.

Britton is due for a little dumb luck this season and should post a sub-4 FIP. An increase in his Ks/9 would be a great sign because there is some top end stuff in his arsenal.

After Britton, things get bleak for the Orioles rotation. Jake Arrieta could have upside but he posted a horrid 5.34 FIP last season and is unlikely to lower that significantly, making him a poor option as a number two starter. Hamel is escaping Coors Field so he could have a bounce back year but then again, now he’ll be facing the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Rays instead of the Padres, Giants, Dodgers and Diamondbacks. Japanese import Wei-Ying Chen has a good fastball and slider combo but he’s never pitched more than 190 innings in a season before. Fellow Japanese import Tsuyoshi Wada is the opposite of Chen, making due with a repertoire often compared to Jamie Moyer’s because of his low speeds.

Brian Matusz will figure into the rotation somehow but it’s unclear if he’ll be in a top five option from day one. Matusz was the worst pitcher in baseball last season, posting a 10.69 ERA, 7.66 FIP, 1-9 record and just 49.2 innings in 12 starts. He’s got a ton of potential but last year was a disaster and it’s hard to dismiss a season THAT bad as growing pains.

Britton is the only player that seems like he can be a mainstay at the top of this rotation and with a pretty dry farm system, that means a few more years of incompetent starting pitching for the Orioles for a few more years. The only thing that this season will show us is if Baltimore can at least count on a Britton/Matusz duo growing together over the next few years.

Baltimore is currently in the process of trying to trade for relief pitcher Koji Uehara, who they traded to Texas last season for first baseman Chris Davis, which would add a much needed arm in this pretty weak bullpen. Kevin Gregg had a pretty bad season as the Orioles closer last year, blowing seven of his 29 save chances, walking over six batters per nine innings and posting a 4.89 FIP, an awful mark for a closer. Baltimore’s executive vice president Dan Duquette didn’t say that Gregg was going to be in the back of the bullpen this season.

Matt Lindstrom and Jim Johnson are the most likely candidates to take over the closing role but they probably won’t be in a position to save many games. Rather, they’ll likely be asked to pitch more than any other bullpen in baseball this season. Former Rangers Tommy Hunter and Darren O’Day could have bounceback seasons after struggling last year but this bullpen lacks even one go-to option capable of shutting down opposing offenses.

The Orioles have assembled a nice batch of offensive talent but their pitching staff needs a major overhaul. And that overhaul doesn’t figure to be coming anytime soon.

The Orioles have two of the highest ceiling prospects in baseball in SS Manny Machado and RHP Dylan Bundy. Machado is going to be a special hitter but he’ll likely outgrow shortstop and have to move to third or, worst case scenario, to an outfield corner. Bundy will be an interesting watch, not only because he has a chance to be a true ace (a term I don’t throw around lightly) but because of how poorly the Orioles have handled pitching prospects lately. Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Zach Britton and especially Brian Matusz all looked like sure things. The fact that they’ve all struggled at the Major League level tells me it has more to do with the organization than the players themselves. After those two guys and toolsy infielder Jonathan Schoop, there’s not much to get excited about.

Guy primed to explode: Jonathan Schoop

Guy I like more than everyone else: Oliver Drake

Guy I like less than everyone else: Xavier Avery

Ridiculousness: Outfield prospect John Ruettiger is the nephew of Daniel “Rudy” Ruettiger

The Cut-Off Man Chris Berry Interactive Chris Berry Interactive